Volume: 4 Issue 9 [September 2021]

Article:Container-Throughput Forecasting in the Port of Pointe-Noire Using ARIMA Model

Author: Dimitri D.H. Owassa, Jingbo Yin

Volume: Vol 4, Issue 9; September 2021

DOI: North American Academic Research, 4(9) 01-18 September 2021, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5516224

Abstract: Because the Port of Pointe-Noire (POPN) is the economic lung of the Republic of Congo, its rapid development will help boost the national revenues. The port’s container terminal is a key element in the management of the port. Thus, an accurate estimation of the future container traffic is essential to the optimization of its performance. In this study, an ARIMA model was developed to forecast the port’s container throughput. Monthly data from 2011 to 2020 were collected, giving a total of 120 observations. The model performance was evaluated using three accuracy measuring indexes. The forecasted values fit well the actual values, demonstrating that the model performed quite well. Finally, the container throughput for the year 2021 was forecasted, and the results showed a slight increase in the container traffic compared to the year 2020, from 928,000 to 957,000 TEUs.

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